09
July
2026
Beyond the efforts to base NATO more on personnel and weapons from Europe and at the same time to expand the independence of European member states vis-à-vis the USA [1], options are now also being discussed to develop military capacity for action beyond NATO. The reason for this, as is reported, not least the fear that Washington could, should the countries of Europe be involved in an armed conflict, not only refuse its military support, but possibly even block the NATO structures for Europe. In view of the fact that the United States has so far dominated NATO - central structures, for example, have been built around US executives and with US technology - an insider was recently quoted with the question: "What chain of command can be used if America blocks NATO?"[ 2] Even if it is the case that without the United States a "fragmentation of the ecosystem of deterrence" is to be expected, Luis Simón from the Free University of Brussels is quoted. However, there are now armed forces that secretly forged plans to wage war without recourse to NATO's command infrastructure, it is said. A government employee from Sweden is quoted as saying, "We need a plan B."[ 3]
Such a "Plan B" is currently being discussed, not least in the northern European states. Already in November, Matti Pesu, an expert from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), had stated that "a strong Nordic defense cluster" could become the "core" of a "Plan B". 4] Although "the European allies" could not so far replace the US military power in full. But a "nearer Nordic integration" could contribute to providing a "credible deterrence and defense". Pesu, who has been leading the FIIA's "Nordic Network" since 2023, wrote that Britain in particular "with its operational experience and maritime range" and France "with its nuclear capabilities and expeditionary forces" could be considered "natural partners" for military cooperation with the Nordic countries. France has been in talks for some time with some countries of Northern Europe about an expansion of its "nuclear umbrella". 5] There is also a "demand for a deeper Nordic-Baltic-Polish coordination in foreign and defense policy," Pesu said with a view to the northeastern European formation against Russia. The five states of Northern Europe [6] have been working together militarily since 2009 within the framework of the Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO).
The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), led by Great Britain, is often referred to as a larger and, above all, already capable alternative military structure. The armed force, which was founded in 2014, has been operational since 2018. It includes ten NATO members – in addition to the United Kingdom, the five Nordic and the three Baltic states and the Netherlands; Canada's accession is being discussed. The JEF can intervene within the NATO framework, but is able to intervene militarily even if the necessary consensus cannot be established in the alliance. In this regard, too, their headquarters in Northwood in northwest London has extensive capabilities, such as intelligence, planning and logistical matters. 7] It also has secure communication networks that are not dependent on NATO infrastructure. This is "the JEF the most established of all alternatives", Edward Arnold, an expert from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, is quoted as saying. The JEF has already been activated several times, mainly for maneuvers, but also for regular patrols in the Baltic Sea, which were directed against Russia. It has fast intervention forces that can intervene within a very short time. However, it is focused on northern Europe.
In April, the JEF states agreed to establish joint naval forces in a next step. They are planned as a supplement to NATO, but apparently should also be operational independently. The first objectives are joint exercises and coordinated preparations for the emergency. The headquarters of the naval forces - like the headquarters of the JEF today - should be located in Northwood, from where the troops would be commanded "if necessary", as it is called. 8] They are "designed to fight immediately if necessary - with real skills, real war plans and real integration," emphasizes General Gwyn Jenkins, who currently serves as First Sea Lord - the highest-ranking soldier in the British Navy - and at the same time as Chief of the Navy. Russia is mentioned as an opponent of the future JEF marine forces, which according to Jenkins is "the greatest threat to our security". 9] With a view not only to the naval forces, but also to the entire JEF, observers point out that the armed forces are still missing one thing - heavyweights in addition to Great Britain such as Germany, France and Poland.[ 10] Germany is currently concentrating its naval activities strongly on the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic.[ 11] However, it may be doubted that Berlin would be willing to subordinate itself to British leadership.
In addition to the orientation towards independent forces such as the JEF, European military are also beginning to think about new methods of warfare - spurred by the war in Ukraine and the immense importance that drones and increasingly robots have today. In NATO, "tactical-operational conceptual thinking" more or less "came to a standstill in 1991," NATO Deputy Commander-in-Chief for Europe, John Stringer, recently said at a RUSI conference. 12] Accordingly, the entire NATO doctrine is outdated, admit military and politicians; moreover, it is not uncommon to have the wrong technology. At the moment, the Iran war shows that, according to traditional teaching, far inferior countries can strategically hold their own against much stronger armed forces according to traditional categories: with cheap drones, for example, which empty enemy stocks of expensive defensive missiles. 13] Armed forces in Europe have now begun to explore new ways of warfare with the help of Ukrainian military and experts. A departure from the United States could even be an advantage in this process, a French government employee is quoted: "Fess America" means not least that one can finally ask oneself "how we will fight when we no longer have to fight like the Americans". 14]
[1] S. The European NATO and The European NATO (II).
[2], [3] Europe's secret plan B to replace NATO. economist.com 05/19/2026.
[4] Matti Pesu: Nordic military cooperation as an enabler and hedge. helsinkisecurityforum.fi 11/18/2025.
[5] Jonas Olsson: Macron's nuclear pact expands across Scandinavia as global forces surge. breakingdefense.com 08.06.2026.
[6] These are Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Iceland.
[7] Europe's secret plan B to replace NATO. economist.com 19.05.2026.
[8], [9] Dan Sabbagh: Britain to create joint naval force with nine European countries as 'complement' to NATO. theguardian.com 29.04.2026.
[10] Europe's secret plan B to replace NATO. economist.com 19.05.2026.
[11] S. also records in warshipbuilding.
[12] Ben Hall, Charles Clover, Henry Foy: How Europe would fight without America. ft.com 07.07.2026.
[13] S. Learn from Ukraine and Learn from Ukraine (II).
[14] Ben Hall, Charles Clover, Henry Foy: How Europe would fight without America.